I don’t know about you, but I’ve gone through a few rounds of prediction about the upcoming U.S. election. I’ve been certain one side would win. Then certain another side would win. Right now, I’m on the fence. It’s so tough to read an election result in the mood of people around me. It’s unlike in England where the only uncertainty this year is how big a majority Labour will win.
Here in the U.S., nonprofits tend to sway federal, state, and local policy, even though most can’t lobby for it. The tax code is strict about being nonpartisan. They get funding on long timelines and try to predict the future. But the truth is that electoral politics often stymies their plans. It’s a far more mercurial reality than foundation funding. Campaigning to win votes is about people’s hearts and minds. It’s not about numbers in spreadsheets. I often wish, though, that cause-driven organizations thought more like campaigners. After all, both are about winning. And if you don’t have a strategy for doing that, then you’re wasting time and money.
Meanwhile, my family and I are spending time this summer down in Norfolk, Virginia. The state last voted Republican for George W. Bush in 2004. Since then, it’s gone for Democratic presidential candidates, but it feels like a purple state. There’s a Republican governor. There are more outspoken Trump voters here than in New York. I played golf on Sunday with my father-in-law. (I did very well. I know you’re most curious about the golf.) But we heard a lot of pro-Trump talk at the clubhouse. Some misogyny about Nancy Pelosi. Some people still hate a powerful woman. I tried to maintain a detached distance from it all out of deference and as a guest. There is no persuading some people. But there is persuading swing voters who matter. And according to recent polling, the election outcome is, once again, tied.
Our fleeting impressions are very powerful, but they don’t mean much. Back in 2015 I had a modest interest in day-trading stocks. I kept a journal based on what I thought would happen, then placed my trades. I quit after a month because it turned out, my impressions were all far stronger than reality. I lost a few hundred pounds, but the lessons were lifelong. That same year, Brexit won in the British polls, and the next year, Donald Trump won the U.S. election. I’d have bet against either outcome. The moral of the story is to try not to be a gambler!
You can’t predict the future, only prepare for different possible outcomes. That’s what I’ve learned the most over the last 20 years or so, working in and around the news business. Also, that a week is a very long time in politics.
This year, there have been two major factors weighing in Joe Biden’s favor. The first is the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade. The second is Donald Trump’s conviction on felony counts for falsifying business records. My impression is that sensible swing voters will weigh both of those heavy. They’ll vote for Biden based on his outspoken protection of reproductive choice. They’ll vote for him because Trump seems more dangerous since the felony conviction. On the other side, Biden is old. He acts old. Trump may be a few years younger, but he seems more vigorous by comparison. Likewise, Biden hasn’t engaged with young voters on the war in the middle East. He’s lost many young voters for good. Now he’s struck difficult positions on immigration. One the one hand he now wants to give legal protections for undocumented spouses of U.S. citizens. On the other he wants to “shut down the border“. But that wasn’t a position which convinced anyone I spoke to, down at the golf club.
It feels like Biden is struggling to gain traction, yet that he might still squeak through. Trump, meanwhile, appeals to people’s anger, and he’s good at stoking it. I’m worried about Trump winning. Then again, that’s a good strategy for the Democrats. In 2016 nobody thought Trump might win. Everybody underestimated him. This time, he has made a very strong impression on everyone. Being afraid of a Trump victory means it’s less likely.
It’s only June! Time to take a few deep breaths.
—Matt Davis is a communications consultant and writer for a wide variety of clients. He also teaches yoga and lives with his wife and son in New York.
