I had a vigorous discussion over dinner in Virginia last night with my in-laws about politics. Remember those?
I said I thought Kamala Harris would win the presidency, holding the senate but not the house. There’s some skepticism about her ability to persuade moderate voters in swing states. But she’s hardly begun to campaign, and her numbers have ticked up fast in prediction markets. Hard-fought elections are good for democracies. I know she can do it. I’m excited for her to try.
When Barack Obama won the presidency in 2008, his own wife later admitted she didn’t think he could do it. America is a country that moves quicker than we all expect and is capable of moon landings. The ascendancy of a well-qualified woman of color to lead our nation would be so positive. It would erase years of shameful presidential politics and remind us why we’re so great, again. It’s great that she gets the opportunity, now, to try.
Elections in this country come down to undecided voters. It’s hard for some to believe that anyone could still be making up their minds at this point. But it is what it is. Nobody likes it when a candidate takes their vote for granted. Undecided voters are very sensitive to the sense that a candidate feels they have it in the bag. They vote on a complex host of factors that aren’t always predictable. An electoral campaign needs to court their votes with extreme care and humility. It must have a delicate touch.
I know all this because I took a Masterclass course with Karl Rove and David Axelrod last year. Odd fact: Both men lost their fathers to suicide. Then they became political campaigners. I hope the relationship isn’t causal.
Trump’s base has committed to him. But there are many people who find him unnerving. He brings guns to knife fights. He walks around with a mouth like a blunderbuss. Even former Presidential candidate Mitt Romney has said he can’t vote for a sex offender. I still see him as a credible threat, and I believe he can win this election. It’s no formality. That’s for sure.
A good counter to a candidate like Trump would be an incisive former prosecutor who picks her punches. Trump has also shown contempt—and worse—for women. With an open goal like Roe vs Wade, one expects half the voting population of America will at least think twice with Kamala.
I was furious with Joe Biden for his stubbornness in staying in the race. His performance at the debate was so atrocious it was obvious to me that he couldn’t persuade you off the fence. He reminded me of King Lear, unaware of himself. When I get to that point, I hope I have the grace to take a step back, too. To quote George Clooney, democracy is ugly. People are unhappy about the manner of Biden’s dethroning, but I’ll take it over what happened in Shakespeare’s play.
In comparison to Biden, Trump’s debate performance didn’t need to be anything other than meh. Yes, it was also full of lies, conspiracies, and the usual nonsense. Yet Biden didn’t capitalize. I expect the Republicans might be waking up this morning to a different reality. Trump won’t maintain discipline. He’ll give in to his temptation to attack Harris on race and gender lines. He’ll lunge and miss, and then his opponent will be waiting for him. What a fascinating four months we’re going to have. And may the best man (or best woman, actually) win.
—Matt Davis is a communications consultant and writer for a wide variety of clients. He also teaches yoga and lives with his wife and son in New York.
